SACRAMENTO -- Despite widespread aversion to new taxes, there is one that most Californians don't seem to mind: the one they don't have to pay.
Supporters of a measure on the November ballot are seizing on the sentiment to push for a vast expansion of services for the mentally ill.
Their plan is to let millionaires pay the bill. And judging by polls, their campaign is proving effective.
The proposal targets a small group of taxpayers for one of the largest state tax hikes in recent history. It would place a 1 percent surcharge on all taxable income exceeding $1 million. The tax would cost the state's 25,000 or so millionaires $10,000 for every million they earn after their first million.
The cost to nonmillionaires would be nothing.
"For most voters, it just doesn't affect them," said Mark Baldassare, director of research at the Public Policy Institute of California. "They are not in the million-or-more income bracket. And they think mental health services are underfunded."
Polls taken in August by the institute and Field Research indicated Proposition 63 enjoyed the support of as many as two-thirds of likely voters surveyed as the Nov. 2 statewide election nears.
On Monday, opponents were joined by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who said he commended the authors of Proposition 63 (and two other health initiatives) for "good motives," but that such measures should not be considered "until California's fiscal health is fully restored."
The measure would bring in as much as $800 million per year to pay for mental health services that are increasingly in short supply, including:
Hundreds more beds, added counseling, more vocational assistance, and new prescription drug programs for overrun county clinics.
The building of more clinics and the training of more mental health workers to address continuing shortages.
New prevention and early intervention outreach programs to help people showing signs of mental illness get help before problems become severe.
As California has struggled with multibillion-dollar deficits over the past few years, polls have shown strong public support for taxing the rich to pay for pressing social needs. But in the state Legislature, such proposals have been blocked by Republicans.
Now backers of Proposition 63 are taking the idea directly to voters. Some warn it could have unintended consequences.
"Bashing the rich is sort of a popular American sport," said Jennifer Roback Morse, an economist at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. "We look to root for the underdog and that sort of thing. But do you really want to drive all these people to Arizona?"
The popularity of Proposition 63 is alarming conservative activists, who have managed to kill or roll back every one of the dozens of tax hikes proposed over the past few years. But they have done little to effectively organize against the new initiative.
"This is a serious threat," said Joe Rodota, a Republican political strategist. "Thus far, the more politically attuned parts of the business community haven't had their ears to the ground on this one. Time is running out."
But Bob Kelly, president of the California region for
"We're talking about a very small portion of the population," Kelly said about individuals reporting an income of more than $1 million. "It would be a worry like with anybody else, but at the same time it would not change their lifestyle."
Kelly said it was unlikely that the 1 percent tax increase alone would prompt his clients to change their primary residence to escape the California tax.
The California Department of Mental Health estimates that there are 50,000 mentally ill homeless people in the state.